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A Writer’s Journey Through the Bureaucratic Maze: A True Account

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ANNOUNCEMENT ABOUT MY FORTHCOMING BOOK

Quest For Second Sex

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You are welcome to browse through the digital version (pdf) of my debut fiction. Your comments are always welcome.

You can leave these on the site or send at author.writes_as_paul_shona@yahoo.ca.

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The fiction is available at amazon.com; look it under my pen name Paul Shona.

Digital version: $2.99 (US)
Print version: $21.99 (US)

Effective January 19, 2017, the fiction is available for your reading pleasure at the Ottawa Public Library (OPL). You are welcome to put a hold on it at any one of its 33 branches.

List of my published and unpublished work

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The following provides a comprehensive list of my published and unpublished work including three books (two fictions and a non-fiction), analytic reports, papers, poems, letters to the editor, and blogs. Papers/reports I co-authored are marked with an astrick (*).

Published

Section A: Fictions and non-fictions published under pseudonym ‘Paul Shona’

1. Quest For Second Sex (an erotic romance fiction, released in August 2016).

2. A Writer’s Journey Through the Bureaucratic Maze: A True Account (a non-
fiction, released in June 2017).

3. Minimum Payment (a social fiction, released in June 2018).

All of these books are available in both electronic and print versions on amazon.com and amazon.ca. The URL of these books is https://www.amazon.com/author/paulshona.

Section B: Analytic reports and papers

4. All India Rural Household Survey, Vol. III, a book co-authored with several statisticians, National Council of Applied Economic Research, New Delhi, 1966.*

5. An international comparison of production functions: the coal fired electricity generating industry, Economica, May 1970.*

6. Econometric study of incomes of Canadian families, 1967, Catalogue No. 13-537, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, 1972.

7. Changes in the assets and debts of Canadian families over time, Canadian Statistical Review, January 1973.

8. Incomes of unemployed individuals and their families, 1971, Catalogue No. 13-552, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, 1973.

9. Changes in the assets and debts of Canadian families over a period of six years, 1964-1970, in Survey of Consumer Finances: Vol. 1 – Selected Reports, Catalogue No. 13-
550, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, 1974.

10. Types of personal debts owed by non-farm husband-wife families, 1970, in Survey of Consumer Finances: Vol. I – Selected Reports, Catalogue No. 13-550, Statistics Canada,
Ottawa, 1974.*

11. Study of net worth of Canadian-born and immigrant families, 1970, Canadian Statistical Review, May 1974.

12. Effect of transfers received and transfers paid on family incomes, 1969, in Survey of Consumer Finances: Vol. II – Selected Reports, Catalogue No. 13-551, Statistics
Canada, Ottawa, 1976.*

13. Study of net worth of Canadian-born and immigrant families, 1970, in Survey of Consumer Finances: Vol. II – Selected Reports, Catalogue No. 13-551, Statistics Canada,
Ottawa, 1976.

14. Earnings and work histories of the 1972 Canadian Labour Force, Catalogue No. 13-557, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, 1976.

15. Earnings and unemployment experience of Canadians, 1971 – 1973, Canadian Statistical Review, August 1976.

16. Distributional effects of health and education benefits, 1974, Catalogue No. 13-561, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, 1977.

17. The distribution of income and wealth in Canada, 1977, Catalogue No. 13-570, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, 1979.

18. Evaluation of data on family assets and debts, 1977, non-catalogued, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, 1979.

19. Incomes, assets and indebtedness of families in Canada, 1977, Catalogue No. 13-572, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, 1980.*

20. Private pension plans and socio-economic status, Canadian Statistical Review, November 1981.

21. An update on the economic situation of the elderly, Canadian Statistical Review, November 1981.

22. Evaluation of earnings data from Survey of Consumer Finances, Appendix, Earnings of men and women: selected years 1967 to 1979, Catalogue No. 13-577, Statistics Canada,
Ottawa, 1981.

23. Earnings of men and women, Catalogue No. 13-217-X. Published annually from 1989 to 1997.

24. Characteristics of dual-earner families, Catalogue No. 13-215-X. Published annually from 1989 to 1997.

25. Incomes of unemployed individuals and their families, Canadian Statistical Review, October 1983.

26. Coverage under work-related pension plans and Registered Retirement Savings Plans, 1977, non-catalogued, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, 1983.

27. Link between economic hardship and labour market problems in Canada, The Labour Force, Catalogue No. 71-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, February 1984.

28. Charting Canadian incomes, 1951-1981, Catalogue No. 13-581, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, 1984.**

29. Measuring economic growth – a critique of Arya’s application of Fell and Greenfields Method, Review of Income and Wealth, 1985.*

30. The distribution of wealth in Canada, 1984, Catalogue No. 13-580, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, 1986.

31. The distribution of wealth in Canada and the U.S., 1984, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Spring 1990.

32. The distribution of wealth in Canada and the United States, Canadian Economic Observer, Catalogue No. 11-010-XPB), Statistics Canada, Ottawa, April 1990

33. How do we compare internationally? Dependency ratios, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Summer 1990.

34. Work and relative poverty, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Summer 1990.*

35. Where the money goes: expenditure patterns of Canadian and American households, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Autumn
1990.

36. How do we compare internationally? Labour force participation of men and women, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Winter
1990.

37. Dependency ratios, Canadian Social Trends, Spring 1991.

38. Dependence on government transfer payments, 1971-1989, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Summer 1991.

_______________________________________________________________________
** It was chosen as one of the best four publications produced by Statistics Canada in 1985 that the Government of Canada sent to the depositories of its High Commissions and embassies.

39. The changing profile of dual earner families in Canada, 1967-1989, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Summer 1992.

40. Mother tongue: 1991 Census Technical Reports, Catalogue No. 92-335, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, 1993.*

41. Home language and other languages: 1991 Census Technical Reports, Catalogue No. 92-336, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, 1994. (Report not officially released due to budget
cuts)

42. International facts: comparison of selected indicators of G-7 countries, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Summer 1994.

43. Currently available statistical measures of male-female occupational and pay differences, paper prepared for the ECE/INSTRAN joint work session on statistics of women,
Geneva, March 6-8, 1995.

44. Change in average family income due to changes in family demographics, 1989 to 1995, Staff Report No. 01-1999, Labour and Household Surveys Analysis Division, Statistics
Canada, Ottawa, April 1999.

45. Assessment of earnings data collected by the Labour Force Survey, Staff Report 01-2000, Labour and Household Surveys Analysis Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa,
December 2000.

46. Comparability of family wealth estimates from the 1999 Survey of Financial Security and the 1984 Survey of Consumer Finances, Staff Report 01-2003, Income Statistics
Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, May 2003.

47. Property taxes, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Autumn 2003.*

48. Facts about property taxes, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Autumn 2003.

49. Family wealth across the generations, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Winter 2003.*

50. A Canada/Quebec Pension Plan overview, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Spring 2004.*

51. Housing costs of elderly families, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Autumn 2004.*

52. Inter-provincial wealth inequality in Canada, 1999, paper presented at the 28th General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth,
held at Cork, Ireland, August 22-28, 2004.

53. Wealth inequality by province, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Winter 2004.

54. Historical perspectives on Canadian tax-filers, 1972-2002, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Spring 2005.

55. Spenders and savers, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Summer 2005.*

56. Comparative view of tourism in Canada and other leading countries, 2002, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Summer 2005.

57. Spenders and savers, 1982-2001, paper presented at the data workshop to post-symposium on Financial Capability of Canadians, organized by Policy Research Institute, June
9-10, 2005, Ottawa.

58. Perspectives on residential construction industry, 1980-2004, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Autumn, 2005.

59. Education indicators, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Winter 2005.

60. Shifts in spending patterns of older Canadians, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Spring 2006.

61. How much do Canadians benefit from the GST credit? Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Autumn 2006.

62. Shift in spending patterns of older households in Canada, 1982-2003, paper presented at the 29th General Conference of the International Association for Research in
Income and Wealth, held at the University of Joensuu, Finland, August 20-26, 2006.

63. Personal debt: comparative study of indebtedness of Canadians and Americans – using macro data, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics
Canada, Ottawa, Spring 2007.

64. Spending patterns in Canada and the U.S., Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Winter 2007.

65. Provincial labour force differences by level of education, 1990 and 2006, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Summer 2008.

66. Change in wealth of families by cohorts, 1999-2005, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Autumn 2008.

67. The distribution of mortgage debt in Canada, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Summer 2011.

68. Household debt in Canada, Perspectives on Labour and Income, Catalogue No. 75-001, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Summer 2012.*

Section C: Poems in Des Perdes (a community magazine no longer published)

69. Immigrants.

70. Fate and personal faith.

71. Marriage: a universal concept.

72. Nagging.

73. Choice between figure and beauty.

Section D: Letters to the editor

74. The Ottawa Citizen, November 22, 2001.

75. The Ottawa Citizen, March 16, 2002.

Section E: Posts on website

76. Numerous posts on personal site http://www.rajchawla6.com.

Unpublished

Section F: Papers on methodology and data quality issues (distribution restricted
within Statistics Canada)

77. Method to measure the recall capability of respondents, 1972.

78. Method to study causality between limited socio-economic characteristics of a family, 1972.

79. Use of dummy variables: some myths and facts, 1973.

80. Guide for testing statistical significance of SCF results, 1973.

81. Comparability of different estimates of unemployment insurance benefits, 1974.

82. Is reporting of data on number of weeks unemployed in two different surveys consistent, 1976?

83. Male-female earnings differential (mimeo) – paper for a seminar, 1982.

84. Evaluation of data on family assets and debts, 1984.

85. Examination of marital status variable in Statistics Canada products – paper prepared for the Advisory Committee on Demographic Statistics, 1987.

86. Wealth of farm families in Canada, 1984 – paper for a seminar, 1987.

87. Comparability of data on dividend income collected by Surveys of Consumer Finances and Revenue Canada, 1988.

88. Qualitative evaluation of data on assets and debts collected from households – paper prepared for Statistics Canada’s Advisory Committee on System of National Accounts,
1990.

89. Profile of Canadians with knowledge of non-official languages, August 1993.

90. Proposed classification of Aboriginal languages for the 1996 Census, 1993.

91. Hot deck imputation of language variables: what we have and what we should have, 1993.

92. Compilation of number of employees in the public sector of Canada – a comparative study of sources of such data published by Statistics Canada, 1994.

93. Shift in the distribution of income in Canada and the U.S., 1980-1994, 1997.

94. Charting Canadian incomes, 1996 edition, 1996.

95. Participation rates by age and sex in Canada and the U.S., 1980-1996 – a chart book with 51 charts, 1997.

96. Decomposition of family income inequality by source of income, 1997.

97. Canadian labour force under the U.S. labour market conditions/indicators, 1998.

98. Millionaires in Canada: a statistical profile, 1999.

99. Financial Capability of Canadians, 2006.

100. Job quality indicators: a proposed theoretical framework with some
illustrations, June 2007.

101. Tax-sheltered and non-tax-sheltered assets of investors and non-investors
in Canada, 2005 (April, 2009).

102. Job-education gap by province, 2006, (August 2009).

103. Inter-provincial earnings gap with special emphasis on the effect of job-
education gap, 2011.

104. Consumer debt in Canada. A formal presentation of this paper was made
on June 1, 2010.

105. Pre-and-post recession spending of households in Canada, 2012.

Section G: Theses and papers written at Manchester, Reading, and Bristol
University (U.K.)

106. Use of covariance analysis in econometrics – a dissertation submitted as
part of Master’s degree in econometrics at the University of Manchester,
Manchester, 1966.

107. An estimation of C.E.S. production function, Research paper # 2,
Department of Economics, University of Reading, Reading, 1968.*

108. A stochastic approach to measure the rate of technical progress in the
British Electricity Industry, Research paper # 31, University of Bristol,
Bristol, 1969.

109. Significance of demographic characteristics on the choice of fuel,
Research paper # 35, University of Bristol, Bristol, 1969.

110. Econometric analysis of the British power generating industry – thesis
written for Ph.D. (degree not received since the examiner wanted some
revisions made for which there was no time), University of Bristol, Bristol,
1969.

Household debt is rising in Canada

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Statistics Canada regularly publishes the ratio of total household debt to disposable income. Since this ratio has been steadily rising, its publication alarms and reminds Canadians the extent to which they are in debt relative to their incomes available for spending and saving. More debt means committing more income to pay-off debt, reducing the potential to save for any contingency including saving for children’s higher education, and eventually, retirement. Not only that, highly indebted Canadians would have limited money left over for paying monthly bills, and other committed expenses, and for day-to-day spending on essentials. This personal spending is one of the key ingredients of economic growth. The bottom line here is that if indebtedness of Canadians continues to grow and they have less and less money left to spend and/or save, it’s eventually going to affect the health of the economy. We may witness a home-grown economic recession resulting in from this steadily growing household debt.

In this note, I comment on the rising indebtedness of Canadians over the last three decades: 1984-94, 1994-2004, and 2004-2014. Besides talking about the two main components of household debt, i.e., mortgage and consumer debt, I show in the accompanying charts the increasing role of consumer debt in household consumption expenditure or spending, which in turn, plays a role in boosting the economy’s health. In other words, consumer debt is not only becoming more and more instrumental in maintaining household spending but also increasing its proportion of nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). This debt induced growth can’t last for ever. Eventually, Canadians are going to be squeezed in their own financial web.

Debt-to-income ratio has been rising
The ratio of total debt outstanding to household disposable income has risen from 57.4% in 1984, to 92.8% in 1994, 115.5% in 2004, and 158.2% in 2014 (Chart 1). This shows that in 1984, we Canadians owed 57 cents of each dollar of disposable income; thirty years later, we are owing one dollar and fifty eight cents – meaning we owe more than our disposable income (since we are using macro data, we are referring to a national picture rather than of specific groups of households owing debt or no debt). Nationally, we have substantially increased our debt liability. Since both the size of the economy and population have increased over time, we measure changes on a per capita or per person basis. For instance, our total debt per person has risen from $6,370 in 1984 to $49,740 by 2014 – an increase of 7.8 times, compared to the 3.1 times increase in our per capita income – from $17,900 to $55,560. This shows that we have been raising our indebtedness at a rate faster than the growth of our national economy (Chart 2).

Chart 1
Chart 2

Mortgage debt is the bigger component of total debt outstanding
Mortgage debt is the bigger component, constituting 68.4% of the total debt in 1984, rising to its maximum share of 74.6% in 1993, then dropping to 68.3% by 2004, and then climbing again since 2010 to 70.5% by 2014 (Chart 3). The highest mortgage share during the early nineties can be attributed to the hectic pace of purchasing and upgrading of houses by the so called ‘baby-boomers born between 1946 and 1965’ who were then aged between the late twenties (likely buying their first homes) and mid forties (likely purchasing up-graded homes). On the other hand, their corresponding cohorts, born between 1965 and 1984, were purchasing homes in 2010 and after with relatively higher mortgages – including the short period when buyers could purchase a house with no down payment at all, or move into a fully mortgaged house. Again, during the early 2000’s, the federal government of the day tinkered with the amortization period, relaxing to 40 years from the conventional 25-year term, which in turn, may have encouraged potential buyers to take higher mortgages. Right now, we are back to the conventional 25-year term.

Chart 3

Also keep in mind the way the concept of mortgage debt is defined here. This includes not only the amounts taken to buy the first house, but also any subsequent upgraded house(s), house purchased for investment purpose to generate rental income, loans taken as reverse mortgages to pay off consolidated debts, or to finance children’s higher education, or have funds for a new or on-going business. Here, the home equity (i.e., the market value of home less its mortgage debt outstanding) plays a crucial role of a secured collateral that can be used to borrow funds to meet any contingency.

Use of consumer debt is growing
Consumer debt, on the other hand, represents all debt outstanding on different credit cards issued by banks, department stores, other retailers and institutions, student loans, car loans, secured and unsecured lines of credit, and all other outstanding loans and unpaid bills. This debt is open to use to purchase all kinds of goods and services ranging from travel, entertainment, household goods and appliances, to paying bills, and for some really financially straitened, for putting food on the table. Its share of total debt had remained around 30% with the exception of 1993 when its share dropped to its lowest at 25.4%. However, looking at this debt outside its share of total debt, it is worth noting that consumer debt per person has risen from $2,012 in 1984 to 14,662 by 2014 – an increase of 7.3 times compared to the eight-fold increase in the mortgage debt (Chart 4). This increase in consumer debt between 1984 and 2014 can be attributed two factors: first, the growth (3.2 fold) in households’ consumption expenditure exceeding the growth (2.8 times) in its disposable income, and second, the heavier overall indebtedness pushed by factors like different incentives offered by credit cards, pitches of car loans with no down payment, and accessibility of lines of credit at low interest rates. For a household with expenditure exceeding income, and no liquid saving available, there is hardly a choice other than to use credit to purchase the desired goods and services.

Chart 4

Consumer debt represented 21.4% of total household consumption expenditure in 1984, rising to 26.1% by 1994, 37.4% by 2004, and 48.6% by 2014 (Chart 5). Put another way, consumer debt was one-fifth of total consumption expenditure of households in 1984; thirty years later, it’s nearly one-half. If this debt is cushioning up household spending, and this spending being a key component of our national economy, then evidently this debt is equally helping the economy float and grow. Consumer debt, which represented 11.2% of our nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 1984 jumped to 26.4% by 2014 (Chart 6). Even though the household spending as a proportion of GDP hasn’t changed much over the last thirty years (just hovered between 53% and 56%), the importance of consumer debt to the growth of the economy has been growing.

Chart 5
Chart 6

Most of the changes occurred between 2004 and 2014
Most of the changes in the key financial components of households occurred over the 2004-2014 decade.For example, of the total increase of $1.5 trillion in GDP (in current market prices) between 1984 and 2014, 21.6% was over the 1984-94 decade, 35.5% over 1994-2004, and 42.9% between 2004 and 2014 (Chart 7). On the other hand, of the total increase of $1.6 trillion in total debt, 58.2% alone occurred over the 2004-2014 period. This is the period when the real estate market went through dramatic changes including a sudden surge in prices of homes across the land, pushing demand for larger sums of mortgages, tinkering with rules on down payment, mortgage amortization term, uncertain economy, low interest rates, role of foreign buyers and speculators, and stagnant incomes. As a result, the likelihood of owning a home, a cherished dream of each and every Canadian family, seems to be slipping away for certain demographic groups.

Chart 7

Parting words
The growth in debt isn’t going to stop. Keep in mind that not all debt is bad. Any debt taken to improve income potential or to acquire an asset is considered as a good debt. Canadians, including potential immigrants, aspiring to own a home, are going to take hefty mortgages to purchase a home. Similarly with tuition and other costs of obtaining higher education rising, persons aspiring to acquire higher education or upgrade skills are going to take more student loans. With incomes stagnant, rising expenditures are equally going to make households borrow more to finance their needs. Middle income families are no longer the exclusive users of consumer credit. Affluent families use it too for convenience, or to reap benefits and rewards (like air travel including insurance) offered by credit cards. Canadians have to use some degree of self-discipline to use credit wisely and within their financially comfortable boundaries. That’s one way to slow down the growth of household debt.

(See my next blog on the concept of minimum payment and the small-print statement, though legally required, on the number of years it will take to pay off the balance – something we see in our monthly credit card statement).

Charts

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charts: misery-index-canada-1980-2014 (1)

Misery Index, Canada, 1980-2014

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Misery Index is a simple indicator of the health of the economy. This index, introduced by Arthur Okun, the economic adviser to the late U.S. President Lyndon Johnson, is the sum of unemployment rate and inflation rate (i.e., year-over-year percent change in Consumer Price Index). It’s well known that the worsening of both unemployment and inflation rates can be costly to not only the economy but also to its population. This cost is not entirely in dollars; this could be social, psychological, and personally painful. Ask an  unemployed how he/she feels when managing to feed his/her family? Or, ask an elderly on a fixed income how he/she is coping with the rising cost of living? Research has also shown a strong association between misery index and the crime rate.

In this note, I take the opportunity to look at the misery index during Harper’s administration, 2006-14 (as the calendar year 2015 is not over yet, and I didn’t want to use fluctuating monthly data) compared to previous Liberal and Conservative administrations since 1980. Between 1980 and 2014, Canada had five Prime Ministers (excluding Kim Campbell and John Turner, who held office for a very short tenure): P. Trudeau (1980-84), B. Mulroney (1984-93), J. Chrétien (1993-2003), P. Martin (2003-06), and S. Harper (2006-14). Their respective misery indexes are shown for periods 1980-84, 1985-92, 1993-2002, 2003-05, and 2006-14 – since I am using the annual rates.

During P. Trudeau’s administration, Canada experienced a worsening recession during 1981-82, with the rate of inflation reaching its highest at 12.5% in 1981, the only year when the rate of inflation exceeded the unemployment rate of 7.6%. In 1982, these two rates were almost equal at 11%. By 1984, the rate of inflation dropped to 4.3% but the unemployment rate jumped to 11.3%. Since one or both rates were quite high between 1980 and 1984, the misery index for 1980-84 period averaged to 17.4%.

Under B. Mulroney’s administration, the misery index fell to 13.4% as both the inflation and unemployment rates fell – the former ranged between 1.4% and 5.6% compared to the latter between 7.5% and 11.2%. Indeed, Canada experienced another recession in the beginning of the nineties but that was much milder compared to that of the early eighties; e.g., the rate of inflation peaked at 5.6%. The gap in the rates of unemployment at the peak of these recessions didn’t vary that much compared to the significant gap in rates of inflation. So the misery index fell largely due to the drop in the rate of inflation.

Ever since J. Chrétien’s administration took over in 1993, the annual rate of inflation in Canada has been between 0.1% and 2.9% – in line with the Bank of Canada’s goal to keep inflation rate low to 2% or around. It’s the unemployment rate that has fluctuated between 6.0% and 11.4% between 1993 and 2014. The unemployment rate has been the dominant component of the misery index, averaging to 10.5% for J. Chrétien, 9.5% for P. Martin, and 7.9% for S. Harper. Again, during S. Harper’s administration, Canada experienced its share of the global economic slump between 2007 and 2009. During this slump, Canada’s rate of inflation remained steadied around 2% but the unemployment rate increased from 6.0% in 2007 to 8.3% in 2009. In other words, the latest economic slump was hard on the Canadian labour market.

The good thing is that the misery index has been steadily falling over time, and hopefully, will continue its downward slide for the incoming administration.

A cautionary note for those familiar with this index. I recognize that this index has been defined in many different ways. For example, some economists have used it as a sum of inflation, unemployment, and interest rate minus the year-over-year percent change in per-capita GDP growth. Since the dynamics of the latter two components is highly volatile in nature, especially the multi-faceted interest rate, it could have distorted the historical comparability.

 

See also “https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Misery_index_(economics)&oldid=681602752”